Sources and methods
Every figure, where it comes from
Raw observations were read from the primary tables on September 27, 2026 and every calculation was rerun at full precision. Displayed results are rounded.
Data series
| Measure | Definition and units | Adjustment | Observations used | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median weekly earnings | Full-time wage and salary workers, 16+; median usual weekly nominal earnings; dollars; quarterly | Not seasonally adjusted | Q1 2020 $957; Q2 2026 $1,251 (released Jul 21, 2026). Q4 2025 has no published value. | BLS via FRED |
| Median weekly earnings, annual | Same population; annual | Not seasonally adjusted | 1998 $523; 2025 $1,204 | BLS via FRED |
| Median weekly earnings by age | Full-time wage and salary workers aged 25–34 and 16–24 | Not seasonally adjusted | 25–34: $872 → $1,160; 16–24: $588 → $806 | BLS Table 3, Q1 2020 |
| Home prices | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index; Jan 2000 = 100; monthly | Not seasonally adjusted | Jan 2020 212.360; Jun 2026 336.663 (released Aug 25, 2026); 1998 average 90.099 | S&P via FRED |
| Mortgage rate | Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed average; percent; weekly | Not seasonally adjusted | Jan 2020 average 3.624% (FHFA reports 3.62%); 1998 average 6.94%; Sep 24, 2026 7.03% | FRED, FHFA |
| General inflation | Truflation U.S. Aggregated: cumulative price change since Jan 30, 2020; percent; daily | None | 31.833% on Sep 26, 2026 (31.866% on Sep 27); 12-month rate 2.491% (2.534% on Sep 27) | Truflation |
| First-time buyers | Share of buyers and median age, survey of July 2024–June 2025 purchases | n/a | 21%; age 40; median down payment 10% | NAR |
| Homeownership under 35 | Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey; percent of householders | Survey estimate | Q2 2026 35.2% (±0.7); Q2 2025 36.4%; Q1 2020 37.3% | Census |
| Median existing-home price | All existing-home sales; dollars; monthly | Monthly median | August 2026 $429,100 (+1.6% y/y) | NAR |
Formulas
Payment M = L × r ÷ (1 − (1 + r)^−360), r = annual rate ÷ 12 2020 price P₀ = 500,000 × 212.360 ÷ 336.663 = 315,390 2020 payment M₀ = M(0.8 × P₀, 3.62%) = 1,150 Today M₁ = M(400,000, 7%) = 2,661 Supported T = M₀ × 1,251 ÷ 957 = 1,503 Gap G = M₁ − T = 1,158 Principal G × (1 − (1 + r)^−360) ÷ r at 7% = 174,052 Burden M ÷ (weekly earnings × 52 ÷ 12) Growth rate g = (1,251 ÷ 957)^(1 ÷ 6.25) − 1 = 4.38%/yr Declining S(t) = M₁ − T × (1 + g)^t until S = 0 Real value nominal ÷ 1.02491^years
Limitations
- National indexes and medians, not local prices or actual applicants.
- Individual earnings, not household income; no data on young buyers' savings or debts.
- Nominal comparisons. Real comparisons against Truflation are approximate because windows differ.
- Series end on different dates: earnings Q2 2026, home prices June 2026, Truflation September 26, 2026.
- The benchmark year drives the result; see the sensitivity table.
- Principal and interest only; the full cost of ownership is higher.
- Program details summarize each provider's own pages and may change.
Verification record
Each headline number from the founding brief, checked against its source or recomputed. No arithmetic errors were found. Clarifications are marked.
| Figure | Brief | Verified | How | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median weekly earnings, Q1 2020 → Q2 2026 | $957 → $1,251 | $957 → $1,251 | FRED table; BLS release Jul 21, 2026 | Confirmed |
| Earnings change | +30.7% | +30.721% | 1,251 ÷ 957 − 1 | Confirmed |
| Case-Shiller, Jan 2020 → Jun 2026 | 212.360 → 336.663 | 212.360 → 336.663 | FRED table; S&P release Aug 25, 2026 | Confirmed |
| Home price change | +58.5% | +58.534% | 336.663 ÷ 212.360 − 1 | Confirmed |
| Truflation cumulative | 31.83% | 31.833% | Truflation data, Sep 26, 2026; base date is Jan 30, 2020 | Clarified |
| Truflation 12-month rate | 2.49% | 2.491% | Truflation data, Sep 26, 2026 | Confirmed |
| Truflation history start | 2010 | Jan 2010 | Methodology: first published Dec 2021; earlier values computed retrospectively | Clarified |
| Mortgage rate, Jan 2020 | 3.62% | 3.62% | FHFA report; PMMS weekly average 3.624% | Confirmed |
| Index-equivalent 2020 price | $315,390 | $315,389.57 | 500,000 × 212.360 ÷ 336.663 | Confirmed |
| Jan 2020 payment | $1,150 | $1,149.96 | Amortization, 80% loan, 3.62% | Confirmed |
| $500,000 at 3.62% | $1,823 | $1,823.08 | Amortization | Confirmed |
| $500,000 at 7% | $2,661 | $2,661.21 | Amortization | Confirmed |
| Earnings-supported payment | $1,503 | $1,503.24 | 1,149.96 × 1,251 ÷ 957 | Confirmed |
| Monthly gap | $1,158 | $1,157.97 | 2,661.21 − 1,503.24 | Confirmed |
| Principal equivalent | $174,052 | $174,051.63 | Present value at 7%, 360 months | Confirmed |
| Payment increase | 131.4% | 131.417% | 2,661.21 ÷ 1,149.96 − 1 | Confirmed |
| 1998 median weekly earnings | $523 | $523 | FRED annual table | Confirmed |
| 1998 Case-Shiller average | 90.099 | 90.0989 | Mean of 12 monthly NSA values | Confirmed |
| 1998 mortgage rate | Not given | 6.94% | Mean of 53 weekly PMMS values | Added |
| Gap, 1998–2019 average benchmark | Not given | $887 | 32.73% × $5,421, subtracted from $2,661 | Added |