What changed
Earnings kept pace with inflation. Home prices and mortgage rates did not.
Cumulative nominal change since early 2020. Each series has its own observation window, shown under its name, so treat this as a side-by-side view rather than a synchronized comparison.
The 30-year fixed rate averaged 3.62% in January 2020. Freddie Mac's latest weekly average is 7.03% (week of September 24, 2026); the worked example uses 7%. Higher prices raised the payment on the same home by 58.5% at the old rate, and the higher rate raised it another 46.0%. Together they took it up 131.4%.
Measured against Truflation's cumulative index, median full-time earnings were roughly flat in real terms (about −0.8%) while home prices rose about 20% faster than general prices. These are approximate because the windows differ by up to three months.
Sources: CSUSHPINSA (212.360 → 336.663), LEU0252881500Q ($957 → $1,251), Truflation US Aggregated (31.83% on Sep 26, 2026), Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, FHFA January 2020 report. Retrieved September 27, 2026.
The payment burden since 1998
Principal and interest on a home that tracks the national index (worth $500,000 today), 20% down, as a share of median full-time weekly earnings. Annual averages of each series; the right-hand point is today's 7% scenario. The lower panel shows the rate that drives much of the swing.
Show the data as a table
| Year | Case-Shiller avg | 30-yr rate avg | Median weekly earnings | P&I share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 90.099 | 6.94% | $523 | 31.2% |
| 1999 | 96.372 | 7.44% | $549 | 33.5% |
| 2000 | 104.777 | 8.05% | $576 | 36.8% |
| 2001 | 113.186 | 6.97% | $596 | 34.5% |
| 2002 | 122.288 | 6.54% | $608 | 35.0% |
| 2003 | 133.741 | 5.83% | $620 | 34.8% |
| 2004 | 150.464 | 5.84% | $638 | 38.1% |
| 2005 | 171.781 | 5.87% | $651 | 42.8% |
| 2006 | 183.481 | 6.41% | $671 | 47.0% |
| 2007 | 179.941 | 6.34% | $695 | 44.1% |
| 2008 | 164.058 | 6.03% | $722 | 37.5% |
| 2009 | 148.551 | 5.04% | $739 | 29.7% |
| 2010 | 144.661 | 4.69% | $747 | 27.5% |
| 2011 | 139.234 | 4.45% | $756 | 25.4% |
| 2012 | 140.977 | 3.66% | $768 | 23.0% |
| 2013 | 154.511 | 3.98% | $776 | 26.0% |
| 2014 | 164.666 | 4.17% | $791 | 27.8% |
| 2015 | 172.146 | 3.85% | $809 | 27.4% |
| 2016 | 180.889 | 3.65% | $832 | 27.3% |
| 2017 | 191.355 | 3.99% | $860 | 29.1% |
| 2018 | 202.426 | 4.54% | $886 | 31.9% |
| 2019 | 209.399 | 3.94% | $917 | 29.7% |
| 2020 | 222.060 | 3.11% | $984 | 26.5% |
| 2021 | 259.960 | 2.96% | $998 | 29.9% |
| 2022 | 298.316 | 5.34% | $1,059 | 43.1% |
| 2023 | 305.733 | 6.81% | $1,117 | 49.0% |
| 2024 | 321.353 | 6.72% | $1,159 | 49.2% |
| 2025 | 328.525 | 6.59% | $1,204 | 47.8% |
| Today (scenario) | 336.663 | 7.00% | $1,251 | 49.1% |
Case-Shiller annual average of 12 monthly NSA values; Freddie Mac PMMS annual average of weekly values; BLS annual median usual weekly earnings (LEU0252881500A). No Truflation series exists before 2010, so none is shown for this period.
Payment as a share of median full-time earnings
27.7% → 49.1%
January 2020 → today, same index-equivalent home, 7% scenario
First-time buyers, share of all buyers
21%
Record low; median first-time buyer age 40 (NAR, July 2024–June 2025)
Homeownership rate, householders under 35
35.2%
Q2 2026, down from 36.4% a year earlier (Census)
Sources: NAR 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, Census Housing Vacancies and Homeownership.
About the inflation benchmark
Truflation publishes a daily U.S. consumer price index from 30+ data providers and about 15 million price points, weighted across 12 categories that are updated each February (housing 23.2%, transportation 19.8%, food 15.3%). Its cumulative index is measured from January 30, 2020. Its U.S. history starts January 2010, but the index was first published in December 2021, so earlier values are computed retrospectively.
Two limits matter here. Its housing component models mortgage interest from property values and 30-year rates, so it partly reflects the same price and rate changes shown above. And it can differ materially from official measures: its 12-month rate was 2.49% on September 26, while BLS reported CPI-U up 3.9% over the year to Q2 2026.
What these measures are not
Median usual weekly earnings describe one full-time wage and salary worker aged 16 or older, not a household and not a young buyer. For workers aged 25 to 34, BLS medians rose from $872 to $1,160 (+33.0%) over the same quarters, a little faster than all workers.
The Case-Shiller index is a national repeat-sales index, not the price of any particular home or place. The national median existing-home price was $429,100 in August 2026, below the $500,000 used in the example.